Some say “be careful of what you
wish for, otherwise you might just get it,” sadly Ukrainians forgot to.
By coming out to Maidan Square and
demanding Yanukovich’s ouster and close economic ties with the European Union,
Ukraine’s citizens are digging their own grave.
At the end of 2013 president of
Ukraine, Victor Yanukovich refused to sign already agreed upon association
trade agreement with the European Union. In the future this agreement could’ve
led Ukraine to join European Union as some Ukrainian citizens wished. Some
people even believed that this trade agreement with the EU would improve
Ukraine’s economic stability. Yanukovich’s revoke of the agreement drove
Ukrainians to come out on Maidan Square in Kiev, capital of Ukraine. People
began riots and demanded impeachment of the president for betraying their trust
and driving economy of Ukraine into a crisis.
Yanukovich’s choice of keeping
business and economic relationships with Russia is a no-brainer to understand.
If Ukraine is to remain a political and economical partner of Russia, it can
receive unconditional financial and political assistance as well as price
relief on energy. Russia can offer so much more of the financial aid, no
strings attached. While IMF, EU and USA’s money will come with extensive lists
of conditionality that will put Ukraine’s economy even further in a deep
debt-hole. The reality is that the EU still cannot afford to deliver on
promises of significant financial aid. Nor will the USA, which is quietly
trying in the background to convince western European governments to ‘backstop’
(restore) financial aid Europe may commit to the Ukraine. Obama will not risk a
Ukraine aid package of any significant dimensions in a US election year.
If to think realistically in terms
of colossal economical losses and gains, it is in Ukrainians’ best interest to
stick with “big bear brother” Russia. Other wise, good luck to Ukraine’s people
with suffering, loosing jobs and jumping off a ledge that they were balancing
on through all of the revolution. Meanwhile, their oligarch’s are enjoying new
opportunity of trading with more of Western partners through EU community than
ever while expanding their business.
It’s very important for Ukrainians
to understand that Yanukovich was never the problem of Ukrainian economy, or at
least he wasn’t the one and only. He wasn’t the dictator who made all the
decisions on his own in order to suppress and control people as well as
increase personal gains. Right next to him were his two main supporters and two
people that controlled half of Yanukovich’s party. These two men, Rinat
Akhmetov and Dmitry Firtash, are the most influential oligarchs in the country.
All three, Yanukovich, Akhmetov and
Firtash, became skyrocketing rich after USSR collapsed and all the businesses
were in the hands of people. They split Ukraine’s market and worked back to
back all the way to the top until they reached the highest point and made
Yanukovich the president of Ukraine. All the decisions that were made by
Yanukovich were made with the approval of the other two and never alone.
As Yanukovich’s popularity was on
the decline, Akhmetov and Firtash realized that they need a plan of action that
would allow them to stay in power and not let their businesses to suffer too
much. They carefully began looking around for new candidates for power and
shifted attention from Yanukovich to let him drown on his own. They began
supporting new, inexperienced and ambitious people like Vitaliy Klitchko with
his party UDAR and Arseniy Yatsenyuk, who took over Yuliya Timoshenko’s
Fatherland alliance.
Ukrainian people can think that
they’ve got a new, non-corrupted Westward looking type of politicians, but in
the end it is the same people, Akhmetov and Firtash that are in charge of
Ukrainian government. By changing the leader they couldn’t change the regime
and instead of Yanukovich’s ‘crony capitalist’ regime they’ve got tons of new
young and power-money hungry economic vultures that are manipulated by the same
two.
If to blame Yanukovich for the
entire Ukrainian economic crisis it is to overlook the bigger picture that is
much more complicated. Any economic trends do not occur overnight or even in
couple of years. It takes decades to build and even more time to rebuild or
implement any drastic economic changes. It is a fact that Ukrainian GDP per
capita was rising safely, compare to other former USSR countries, until the
‘Orange Revolution’ in 2004. It was happening because of tightly integrated
economic relations with the Russian Federation. After the ‘Orange Revolution’
and attempts of shifting Ukrainian exports and financial flow to the West,
Ukraine experienced natural adjustment period of slower economic growth.
Further, it was negatively affected by oil price shocks, financial crash of
2008, inability of western economies to generate a robust sustained recovery
since 2008, and emerging markets crisis today.
When Viktor Yanukovich came to
power in 2010, Ukrainian economy was already all the way down the hill. That
doesn’t mean that his golden mansions helped Ukrainian economy to rise.
Contrary, corruption and policy ineptness of his
regime may well be included among the various causes of the Ukraine’s current
economic problems, but nonetheless broader historical economic causes are
involved as well. The
smartest and tactical of all his decisions was probably his refusal to sign the
association agreement with the European Union, a major reason that encouraged
the protests.
hey Mariya this isn't a real comment but I have no other way to contact you. You said you had some stuff by Marx a while back that you would send me, I still want to see it. I also wanted to say that I miss our chats. We should meet outside of class, I'd sure like to hear more of your opinions on things.
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